Updated: 2024
Place a free bet on next country to leave the European Union
Quick Bet
Next Country To Leave EU (without United Kingdom) Odds
|
|
|
|
| Italy | 10/3 | 3/1 | 3/1 |
| Poland | 9/1 | 14/1 | 14/1 |
| Greece | 10/1 | 6/1 | 8/1 |
| Czech Republic | 10/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| France | 10/1 | 8/1 | 8/1 |
| Sweden | 10/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| Hungary | 10/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 |
| Ireland | 20/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 |
| Denmark | 20/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| Cyprus | 33/1 | 18/1 | 18/1 |
| Romania | 50/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| Netherlands | 33/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| Finland | 40/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 |
| Austria | 20/1 | 12/1 | 12/1 |
| Germany | 50/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| Latvia | 50/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 |
| Bulgaria | 20/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| Portugal | 66/1 | 16/1 | 16/1 |
| Spain | 25/1 | 14/1 | 14/1 |
| Belgium | 33/1 | 25/1 | 25/1 |
| Croatia | 25/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| Estonia | 66/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 |
| Lithuania | 66/1 | 40/1 | 40/1 |
| Malta | 50/1 | 50/1 | 50/1 |
| Slovakia | 66/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| Slovenia | 66/1 | 33/1 | 33/1 |
| Luxembourg | 100/1 | 66/1 | 66/1 |
Brexit Betting Updates
About Brexit – Walk-Through
Brexit is a thing of many layers and most people don’t fully comprehend all of them.
This section has been specially designed to give you an overview of Brexit, current opinions in the country and what will happen next.
Brexit is happening because of a referendum that was held on Thursday 23rd June 2016. The outcome of the referendum was a 51.9% vote that Britain should leave the European Union. The turnout for the referendum was 71.8%, one of the biggest turnouts in recent history.
Is Brexit a Definite?
At this moment in time, it does look like Brexit will definitely happen and the United Kingdom will leave the European Union. Having said that, the government could potentially cancel Brexit if they vote to do so.
This would require an actual law change, as it would mean going against the result of a legally binding referendum.
At this moment in time, no UK-based political parties are looking to do this.
However, the EU Court of Justice has stated that Britain can cancel the process of Brexit and remain a member on its existing terms.
It is worth noting that Brexit has been delayed three times so far.
31 January: the deadline set by the European Union for the UK to withdraw from the EU.
The two leading political parties, Conservative and Labour, were in talks to try and find a compromise that they could both back. This led to an official vote of No Confidence in Parliament.
Going Forward
There are a few different potential outcomes in the current Brexit landscape, including:
1. A “No Deal” Brexit
If our politicians in Parliament can’t agree on a deal, then a no-deal Brexit could take place. There are things that could be done to halt a no-deal Brexit, especially if people in the Houses of Parliament agree with the decision. If politicians push, there may be another vote of No Confidence in the Houses of Parliament.
A no deal Brexit is risky business because it doesn’t guarantee the rights of any of the European citizens living in the United Kingdom. It could also impact businesses and the goods that are imported and exported from and to mainland Europe.
2. Renegotiating
There is every possibility that a new Prime Minister could try to renegotiate with the European Union. In the past, the European Union has refused every offer that we have drafted. If this were to happen again, it could potentially lead to further delays and problems.
3. Referendum
If talks with the European Union went sour, then there is a slight possibility that another referendum could be held in the United Kingdom. The general public could be given a choice on whether or not they accept a deal or no deal situation, or even whether or not the United Kingdom should actually remain in the European Union.
This is quite a touchy subject, as it would impact the way that British citizens see their vote and the way that they see the impact of voting, leading to a lack of respect for democracy. On the other hand, a lot of British citizens feel like they were lied to during the first referendum.
Political Betting: Brexit
Naturally, with the Brexit situation comes the introduction of Brexit betting. The bookmakers know that they can take advantage of the current political landscape, and they are not afraid to do so.
This can lead to them offering impressive odds that smart gamblers can really take advantage of. Try to remember that the bookmakers have the best minds in the business deciding what their odds will be, so you should always try to make sure that you do as much research as possible before placing your bets.
Brexit Betting Markets
Given that there are so many potential outcomes to the Brexit situation, there are a lot of different betting markets to match them. Some of the main betting markets that you may be interested in include:
✅A No-Deal Brexit
When we take a look across the internet at some of the different available betting markets, a no deal Brexit bet is often available among them.
The government will more than likely try to avoid a no deal Brexit, but if the European Union keep refusing to agree to the terms that are laid out by the British government then a no deal Brexit may end up being the only option.
A no deal Brexit could potentially mean re-introducing border checks within the European Union, trade and transport disruptions, no transitional period and European citizens living in the United Kingdom being unaware of what rights they will retain. Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the Labour party, has sworn that his politicians will not allow a no deal Brexit to take place, whereas multiple other politicians have said that they will consider one should the European Union continue refusing our plans.
✅Will Brexit Happen?
If you would like to, then you could also bet against Brexit happening. When you bet that Brexit won’t happen, you are usually only presented with two different betting options to choose from. You will either be able to say that Brexit will happen, or that Brexit will not happen.
This is quite a tricky situation. When it comes to democracy, most people would love to believe that British politicians will make sure that Brexit happens.
Unfortunately, the European Union has already said that British politicians can vote to remove Article 50 and that Britain can remain in the European Union under the previous terms and following the previous rules.
At this moment in time, it seems highly unlikely that Britain will remain in the European Union. Remaining would lead to normal British people questioning whether or not all of our future elections and referendums will be handled in the same way.
✅A Second Referendum
You could also bet on another Brexit referendum if you think that one will take place. If a second referendum does take place, then you will also, have the opportunity to bet on what you think the British people will be voting for.
Will they be voting for what they want the deal to include? Will they be voting on whether or not we can leave with no deal? Will they be voting on whether or not we can remain in the European Union? There are a lot of different avenues that a second referendum could potentially cover, and it could be quite difficult to anticipate which it will be.
The Date
If you believe that Brexit will take place in the near future, then you could bet on what date you think the United Kingdom will leave the European Union. Given that this date has already changed more than once, we would advise that you exercise caution when placing a bet like this.
The Situation on 4th October 2019
With so much going on in recent weeks, it’s hard to keep up with developments. The bookies are as ever, on top of things. Let’s take a look where things stand if you fancy a Bet on Brexit!
The Prospects of Boris Johnson
With all the heated debate in parliament, the infighting with the Tory party and the controversies surrounding his advisor, Domonic Cummings, many people don’t expect Boris Johnson to be around much longer.
Last weeks massive decision by the Supreme Court to rule that the suspension of the UK parliament was, in fact, illegal has given a massive boost to predictions of the demise of Boris as PM.
If fact, the odds on him becoming the shortest-serving British Prime Minister ever have been drastically reduced.
Paddy Power is currently offering tasty odds on Boris Johnson to be the shortest-serving PM ever (under 119 days) at 5/4.
Betfair is offering up 3.45 for there to be a 2019 exit for Johnson and William Hill in roughly the same range for a change in No.10 Downing Street.
However, despite all the rumours swirling around Westminster village, Paddy Power is still giving odds of 1/4 for Boris Johnson to lead the Conservatives at the next General election.
So, at this stage of the Brexit game, it’s hard to predict who will still have a job come Christmas, let alone who will be leading the country.
Talking of which…
When Will There Be a General Election?
The current state of play sees Boris and his party in power but without a majority. This makes them overall, umm, well, pretty powerless right now.
As Prime Minister, Boris Johnson has lost every single one of the votes which has taken place in the House of Commons. This is a record for any UK Prime Minister and not one that he’s going to be particularly proud of.
Therefore, the situation we have arrived at is a Conservative government who are desperate to trigger a General Election.
This situation is of his own making, having withdrawn the whip from over 20 of his own PMs who voted against him to enable legislation to block a No Deal Brexit. This has created a powerless government who are running out of options fast.
However, this idea is not supported by the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn. He is holding out to ensure that Boris is forced to ask the EU for an extension to the Brexit deadline which helps to take a No Deal scenario off the table.
It’s a crazy situation, as usual, the opposition parties would be very eager to make an election happen. They say it will but after a Brexit extension. Therefore, we could be looking at a UK General Election sometime in November.
Who would triumph at the polls if one was called tomorrow? It’s close to call, but the opinion polls have the Tories with a 2 to 14 point lead over the other parties. Some polls even show Labour in 3rd place behind the Liberal Democrats.
Paddy Power currently has 13/8 for there to be a November General Election with 13/8 on it being a pro-Brexit Conservative majority.
/5
Will There Be Another Referendum?
Even if an election occurs, it might only change a few seats one way or another in Parliament. With a Tory majority, there’s still no guarantee of getting a Brexit deal through the house of commons if some PMs rebel as they have been on regular occasions.
Many politicians and pundits alike see another referendum as the only way forward. Putting the deal vs remain back to the people for another vote may be a risky strategy but there are increasing calls for it to happen.
Indeed, Labour has now made it an election pledge as have the Liberal Democrats. So, what do the bookies think are the chances of a second Brexit referendum happening?
Betfair has it split pretty even at 1.03 for and 1.04 against, it couldn’t be much tighter.
Paddy Power has 1/100 against it happening and 1/12 in favour of it happing. So, it’s not looking as likely as some might think.
Will Brexit Still Happen?
It’s no surprise that, given all of the above occurrences, many are starting to doubt that Brexit will even happen at all. Let alone in 2019. It’s interesting how much the Brexit odds have moved on this now that the agreement hammered out by Theresa May feels like a distant memory.
However, there’s now talk in recent weeks that the deal that was voted down by MPs 3 times in total could make a glorious 4th appearance if Boris manages to secure some tweaks to the backstop.
Betfair has the odds of a 2019 successful Brexit at 3.00 and it happening sometime in 2020 at 4.20.
William Hill has odds of 1.30 for no Brexit happening before the current leaving date of 31st October 2019. That’s compared to 3.40 odds of a Brexit of any sort before that date.
Paddy Power is showing 6/1 for no Brexit, in any form, taking place before the end of 2019. With a 7/2 bet on Brexit for the UK to leave the EU with a withdrawal agreement before New Year’s day 2020.
Snap Election in the UK? | Nov 2019
With Brexit coming closer and the pieces coming together we have now just recently learned about the three-month extension for our politicians to put the deal in place. EU agreed to the extra time to solve all surrounding issues before the final exit. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has raised voices regarding the need for a general election. And bookies are not late to respond, what do the odds have to say about a snap election in the UK?
Why Would Johnson Want Another Election?
As the next formal election is not scheduled to be held until 2024, Boris is looking to restore the Conservative Party’s majority in the parliament to make it easier to get his Brexit deal through the books. But in order for him to have a snap election he would need to secure a 2/3 majority in the parliament’s vote, as of now this is not the case, he previously fell short as he only managed to get 299 votes of the 434 necessaries. As over a third of the MPs are opposing him and his politics this can prove to be very difficult, last time they didn’t even bother to submit their vote, what a way to represent the people.
BoJo has a lot to win from a general election, as his popularity has been increasing since he came to power he believes another vote would secure him larger margins to get his Brexit deal through. There is also another chance we get to see a general election and that is if a one-line bill is passed through the House of Commons regarding the election, this bill would only need over 50% majority of votes to be approved.
The third option for Johnson is to resign, if he did he would leave or call a no-confidence motion in himself to trigger a chance for election, first the MPs would get 14 days to form a new government. If not successful in these 14 days then a general election would be held at the earliest time possible.
What do Bookmakers Think Regarding a Snap Election?
As we can see there are some ways for Boris to get to a general election, the question is if he will manage? Labour has more to lose if an election is held and we can expect them to keep working against the will of the PM. But what do our bookies say about everything, is there money to be made also for us?
You can find many different markets for an eventual upcoming general election. Such as “Most Seats”. You can decide on your winner.
If you feel like Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party will slide in and steal the votes odds are given at 50/1 with PaddyPower.
If you instead would like to vote on gets majority you also have some options. For no overall majority, William Hill offers odds of 5/6 and for a conservative majority, you find odds of 6/5!
As we see chances are high of a general election giving more seats to the conservatives if we are to listen to the bookies, take a look at what you think and make sure to place your bets before it is too late, good luck!
Brexit Update | Jan 2020
Boris Johnson won a convincing victory in the December 2019 Parliamentary Election, securing the Conservative Party an absolute majority in parliament and paving the way for Brexit. Other parties advocated for a second referendum, a People’s Vote or a straight revocation of Article 50, which originally activated Brexit in 2016.
Boris Johnson was clearer than anyone else in his position: “I will get Brexit done” became the slogan of his campaign. And so he will, according to the bookmakers, who are no longer offering betting odds on the final Brexit date. They are certain it will happen on January 31, 2020.
Brexit Timetable 2020
January 9
On January 9, the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill passed through the British Parliament after two days of discussions. Unlike the other Withdrawal Agreements negotiated by Theresa May and Boris Johnson, which have all been turned down by a split parliament, this one was expected to pass through without any facing any problems.
Things went ahead as expected on January 9, as Boris Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement passed through the House of Commons with a 330 to 231 votes majority. The way is now paved for Britain’s scheduled departure from the European Union on January 31.
January 13
On January 13, the Withdrawal Agreement heads over to the House of Lords, as the Parliament does not sit on Fridays. Members of the House of Lords obviously have to vote as well, but that is merely considered a formality at this point. The Withdrawal Agreement is expected to pass without any complications.
January 27
The date is set for a last, formal debate to consider any revisions to the bill. This is the last step that needs approval before the Withdrawal Agreement is converted into official UK law.
January 31
The time has finally come for Brexit day, as the UK officially leaves the European Union at 11pm UK time. The british electorate originally voted to leave with a 51.9% majority on June 23, 2016, so it’s been almost 3 years in the waiting. For a while, it looked uncertain whether it would happen at all. On January 31, 2020, it finally will.
What Happens To Brexit After January 31st, 2020
January 31, 2020, is the official Brexit day and after this day, Britain will no longer be a member of the European Union. However, that does not mean everything is settled. As per the Withdrawal Agreement, Boris Johnson’s Conservative government now begins the long process of negotiating Britain’s future relationship with the European Union.
February 1
The UK has now formally left the European Union. That marks the beginning of the transitional period, as the UK has to negotiate a trade agreement and a new relationship to the European Union. In what is called the Transition Period, the UK will have until December 31, 2020, to negotiate this relationship. This will be a difficult job for the Conservative government and is expected to be very challenging.
It is not yet known whether negotiations begin on February 1, but Boris Johnson’s government is expected to start as soon as possible.
June 2020
In June there will be a summit with Britain and the European Union member states, where the current state of the trade talks is discussed. It is also the last chance for Britain to ask for an extension to the transition period.
November 26
Deadline for any trade agreement to be in place, as it needs time to be ratified and pass intao law before the end of the year.
December 31
The final deadline under the transition period. If neither a trade deal nor extension of the transition period has happened, the UK would leave on No Deal terms and have to trade with the European Union under World Trade Organisation rules. This is the most dramatic scenario that could still happen, but only if a trade deal is not agreed.
December 31, 2024
The potential final date for the conclusion of the transition period. This is only relevant if Britain and the EU fails to broker a trade deal in 2020 and agrees to an extension of the transition period.
