Updated:2019
For a very long time, a No Deal Brexit has been a possible although unrealistic scenario. However, Boris Johnson’s latest touring of Europe brought no credible results, and the European Union still looks unlikely to compromise on the much-debated ‘Backstop’. Meanwhile, in Britain, Boris Johnson’s controversial prorogation of parliament stirred much controversy, as opposition figures and Tory rebels see it as a way of blocking parliament from having their say on a No Deal Brexit. Then on Tuesday night, an extraordinary vote commanded a majority against Johnson’s government, insisting that there could not be a No Deal Brexit – under any circumstances. And now, a General Election looms in the horizon.
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Why A General Election Could Happen
It might seem counterintuitive for Johnson to call an early election before the October 31 Brexit deadline, but the betting markets are now increasingly convinced that it will happen. In fact, looking at the current prices offered, one might even call it a certainty. The odds given by leading bookmakers for a General Election in 2019 have fallen steadily over the past few weeks and are now almost diminishable.
Boris Johnson is now expected to call a snap election, as a result of the parliamentary tension that has been growing over the summer. The bill passed on September 3 effectively makes it improbable for Johnson to effectuate a No Deal Brexit – and that seriously weakens his bargaining position with the European Union, according to himself. Johnson may believe he can defeat Jeremy Corbin and the Liberal Democrats in an election, which could pave the way for a clear Tory majority that can guarantee the Brexit they envisage. However, Johnson’s own party is also in turmoil, as 21 Conservative MPs rebelled against the official party line and now face exclusion from the party. Also, an early election would not eradicate the October 31 deadline nor the deadlock in negotiations with the European Union.
With Johnson Under Fire, What Happens Now?
No one really believes that Boris Johnson wants a No Deal Brexit, although the notion of a No Deal Brexit has been severely normalised in British politics. Nigel Farage, the influential Brexiteer and current leader of the Brexit Party, now refers to it as a ‘Clean Break Brexit’.
The dangers of a No Deal Brexit became public knowledge over the summer, as a governmental contingency study named ‘Operation Yellowhammer’ was leaked. Yellowhammer outlined how seriously a No Deal Brexit would disrupt the British economy and its relationship to the European Union. On September 1, another governmental leak outlined how lorries and truck deliveries going in and out of the UK would be delayed for hours in the period following Brexit.
However, Johnson’s chances of securing a negotiated deal with the European Union that doesn’t include the Backstop is starting to look impossible. Meanwhile, Farage’s Brexit Party could be a major factor in an upcoming General Election. Farage has said that his party won’t stand, if Johnson promises his commitment to a No Deal Brexit on October 31. This could force Johnson into accepting a No Deal Brexit. All options are therefore on the table as the deadline nears.
Why Jeremy Corbyn and Labour Could Block a General Election
Opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn has been calling for a General Election for the past two years but faced with the prospect of a No Deal Brexit, that has now changed. According to a legislative change made during Tony Blair’s time as Prime Minister, a 2/3 majority is needed in order for a General Election to be announced. And Labour is yet to declare their support for this.
Basically, Corbyn wants to ensure that no matter what happens, Britain won’t crash out of the European Union without a Deal on October 31. Even if that means delaying a General Election – which most people agrees will happen eventually – beyond this deadline, or at least until Johnson secures an extension with his European counterparts. Therefore, a 2019 General Election remains the most likely outcome.
Where to bet on brexit?
Not all bookies are offering odds on Brexit. There are 3 of the best bookies to bet on Brexit. Also, you can claim a risk-free bet and get your bet refund if you lose it.
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