Updated: 2024
By nature, politics is a risky business. Betting on politics can be even riskier, especially if you don’t have a solid strategy to stick to before you start placing your bets. Luckily, there are a few different things that you can do to improve your game when it comes to betting on politics and political events, especially if you are betting on European politics and similar markets that cross into European politics.
Today, we are going to be exploring the world of political betting, the betting markets that are available to you and how you can improve your own chances when betting on party politics and public affairs.
An Introduction to Political Betting
In order to fully understand the political betting field, you have to have some understanding of current affairs and the way that the world of politics functions, as well as the actions of the people who are involved. Otherwise, you might not fully understand the different areas that you are betting on and that could leave some room for error.
With international referendums, position changeovers and ornate new horizons on the playing field, there’s an awful lot to take in and that presents us with a number of different wagering opportunities. We would advise that you start out with one betting market and branch out from there. That way, you don’t have to take in a whole ocean of information in one go.
One of the best things about betting on politics is the fact that opinions can be found everywhere. You just have to look at the news during an election, event or turbulent time to know just how many people are interested in what is happening, and the bookmakers are incredibly skilled when it comes to hedging their bets using public opinion.
Generally speaking, the bookmakers have a tendency to get things right when it comes to European politics, but sometimes there are a few surprises that they are never prepared for. The smart gambler will always be one step ahead, assessing all of the angles to try and find the bookmaker’s weak spot.
European Politics
Betting on European politics is considered to be relatively risky business right now, especially with the on-going Brexit spectacle in the United Kingdom, and some of the other political issues that are popping up in countries all over the continent.
Luckily, those very same political issues are opening-up plenty of different markets for online specialists and high street bookmakers. This means that they can offer you more betting markets, some of which will be easier to make money with than others.
During the most recent European elections, we found out that the UK would stand alongside the other members, even during Brexit. British nationals and Europeans living in the country also had the opportunity to vote. In the United Kingdom, the Brexit party received the biggest proportion of the public vote and would thus have been the safest bet.
In the polls leading up to those events, we could see that the British public favoured the Brexit Party. But, the media was still sceptical and a lot of people who bet on the event placed their bets in other places.
European Politics: Betting Markets
As with most things that you can bet on, there are a few different betting markets that become available to you when you venture into the concept of placing a bet on European politics. They include:
EU Election Betting
We know that the European elections have only just taken place, but they are quite a good reference point to use if you are looking to start betting on European politics. We can look at the way that people bet on EU elections and similar events to learn more about how accurate the forecast was before the elections took place.
This can give us an idea of how accurate public opinion was in the run-up to the event, the influence that celebrities and social influencers have on public opinion, the influence that the media has, and how good normal people, specialist bookmakers and high street bookmakers are at predicting what will happen in the European elections.
When we take a look at the forecast for the 2019 European election, we can see that the Brexit Party appeared to be at the top of the chain in polls in the United Kingdom. The results of the election matched this, with the Brexit party towering high above their competition in the polls.
The bookmakers in the United Kingdom could also see that the Conservatives were going to finish low, with odds of 20/1 on them finishing 7th or lower, odds of 8/1 on them finishing 6th, odds of 6/1 on them finishing 5th and odds of an astronomical 100/1 on them finishing 1st. This was also predicted in the polls before the election.
We can use all of this information and then some to help us to plan for the next European election or referendum. We know that you can usually see where public interest is pointed, and the bookmakers usually have a lot of information at their disposal when they are setting their odds. One of the important factors that we cannot really predict is how many people will turn up at the polling stations, and that alone can make or break an election.
Brexit Betting
If you are betting on the European markets, then you will also be presented with the opportunity to bet on the events of Brexit and bet on the UK remaining in the European Union.
With Paddy Power, we can currently see odds of 8/11 on the United Kingdom not leaving the European Union and 11/10 on the UK leaving the European Union. You can also bet on whether or not you think a second Brexit referendum will take place, whether or not Article 50 will be revoked and whether or not there will be a second vote of No Confidence in the UK.
If you enjoy placing novelty bets, then you will be happy to hear that Paddy Power also offer a number of different novelty bets that you can really go to town with. You can bet on things like whether or not the United Kingdom will run out of contraceptives, whether or not rationing will be introduced, whether or not Ireland will re-join the Commonwealth and whether the Sterling and Euro will reach parity.
EU Commission President
If you would like to, you can currently place bets on who you think the next European Commission President will be. Right now, the favourite to win is Ursula von der Leyen, who is closely followed by Michel Barnier and Christine Lagarde.
Betting on Individuals
Running alongside novelty bets, we can see a series of fun novelty bets that are aimed at specific individuals, including:
Betting on Nigel Farage
A generous source of inspiration for comedians all around the world, Nigel Farage is known to be quite the character. With Paddy Power, you can currently bet on whether or not he will become the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom by 2025, whether or not he will become an MP this year and whether or not he will become the Prime Minister this year.
Betting on The Queen
If you want to place another novelty bet, then you could consider betting on whether or not you think the Queen will move her permanent residency to Ireland following the events of Brexit. If you are looking to make as much money as possible from your betting activities, then we would probably recommend steering clear of this one.
Upcoming Bets
There are a number of different upcoming results that you can place bets on when it comes to European politics, including:
- The German Chancellor: Right now, you can bet on who you think the next German Chancellor will be after Angela Merkel. Current favourites for the position include Friedrich Merz, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer and Robert Habeck.
- The Spanish Prime Minister: You could also bet on the outcome of the next General Election in Spain. The bookmakers believe that Oriol Junqueras is likely to hold the coveted role, but Gabriel Rufian could shake things up.
- The Irish Election: If you follow Irish politics, then you could bet on which political party will receive the most seats. It currently looks like Fine Gael will hold the most, with Fianna Fail following closely behind.
EU Referendum Betting
If betting on referendums is more your cup of tea, then you could consider looking at the next country to leave the EU betting. With Brexit being an on-going spectacle, there is a lot of speculation regarding which country will be the next to leave.
If we take a look at the William Hill EU referendum spread betting, we can see that spread betting outside of the EU is also popular. Naturally, Brexit has captured the attention of the world. Right now, all attention is on whether or not there will be a second referendum, whether or not Article 50 will be revoked and whether or not an agreement will be made before Britain leaves the EU.
When it comes to the concept of other countries leaving the union, there are a lot of different countries you can bet on. William Hill will let you bet on countries that include Estonia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Ireland, Sweden, the Czech Republic and France. Naturally, some of these countries have higher odds than others and it’s highly unlikely that Luxembourg will be leaving the European Union any time soon.
We would advise that you pay attention to where the bookmakers are hedging their bets on this one. They have teams working behind the scenes, factoring in political landscapes, current affairs and the opinions of the people who live in those countries to work out where to put their money.
Developing a Strategy
Developing a strategy for betting on European politics can be easy or complicated, depending on how much time you wish to put into your gambling activities.
Try to remember that the bookmakers are known to get things right when it comes to politics, meaning that you can take a look at the EU betting odds to try and work out where they think the winning answer can be found. When it comes to politics, bookmakers tend to base their decisions on public opinions, poll results and all of the other information that their specialists can find.
If you want to improve your chances, then you should try to do some research of your own. If you can learn everything that there is to learn about political events in Europe, then you will naturally be better educated in the field and able to place bets that have been considered more.
We would highly recommend that you start with one area and branch out from there if you are looking to learn everything that there is to learn about European politics. For example, you could start by researching Brexit and focusing on Article 50. This could enable you to place a smart bet on whether or not Article 50 will be revoked. Just remember that the political landscape does like to throw curve balls, and no amount of preparation can really prepare you for those.
